Thursday, December 27, 2018

Electric Vehicles? Really?


FROM THE INTERNET


In order to switch just passenger cars to electric, the US would need to increase its annual electricity production by 50 %.  Understand US electricity consumption today is roughly equal to what it was twenty years ago, due to increases in efficiency.  Adding capacity is staggeringly expensive, and renewables are just not up to the task.  Off the top of my head, I believe the amount of additional electricity production required to be around 2,000TWh.  This compares to total renewable production in the US (don't confuse "capacity" for actual production) of, again off the top of my head, about 50TWh.
If the generators really believed electric cars to be the future, don't you think they would be adding capacity already?  Would companies like The Southern Company not be priced in the toilet due to the massive obligations imposed by the need to build this capacity?  Do you, as a rate payer, wish to pay the cost of abandoning the trillions of dollars worth of functional, oil based infrastructure in order to replicate that capacity in the electric industry?
Do you understand the ampacities involved in the charging of these vehicles?  The faster you charge, the higher the ampacity.  Is 400 volts at 2,000 amps really suitable for consumer products?  Do you wish to charge a Tesla to 80% in 10 minutes?  How about 400 volts at 5,000 amps? Is that safe?  For perspective, if I installed such equipment in an industrial environment, best practice requires that I isolate the switching equipment in an entry restricted Motor Control Center.  Most plants which operate such equipment require a permit and two qualified technicians to be present to even open the door to the equipment.  The widespread introduction of all electric vehicles requires te availability of large scale charging stations.  How about a 20 bay QuickTrip?  400 volts at 100,000 amps? 4MWhs for one installation?  Does that sound feasible to you? Safe? Practical?
And we haven't even begun to address all the small delivery and service vehicles, yet.  All those little six wheelers being driven by delivery outfits, plumbers, electricians and HVAC guys need to be able to fuel on demand frequently, as moving the driver is not the primary purpose.
Oh, yeah.  What about the coming explosion of on demand delivery of small parcels by Amazon and on line retailers.  Are those vehicles also to be electric?  How much more electric production is required for that.
A wholesale switch to electric vehicles is simply impossible today, and will likely remain impractical for the forseeable future.  Have fun with your electric car.  They are cool as hell and fun to drive.  But don't think it is the future, or that you can impose the switch by legislative fiat on an unprepared economy.
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 I was at a condo agm a few weeks ago. They addressed the charging of condo owners’ future electric vehicles. They have to spring for the cost themselves. The lawyers at the meeting said that some buildings are installing a backbone for 20 vehicles, but they don’t have the infrastructure to install for more vehicles. They would need a bigger incoming transformer. The 20 tenants would have to pay 1/20th of the the cost for the backbone and then the cost of the charger. It will cost many thousands for the install and metered power to charge up every time. 
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Renters will frequently find that owning an electric is not possible, as they cannot install a charging station.  As Musk's vision, and that of the bulk of the futurists who push electrification, is one of a dense urbanization, the power requirements of chargers in residential buildings becomes a hard limitation.  The only way to provide the power, without encountering the limitations imposed by the wire's insulation, is to make open bus bars available, like the famed "third rail" in electrified subways.  I'm not convinced this is a good idea.
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