'It's Coming': CDC Director Warns Coronavirus To Become Widespread Throughout United States

You don't say...

• Imposing travel restrictions on a country where a bio-weapon has gotten loose is now "racist."
• CNN. Where everything is racist, especially logic and reason.
• This political correct thing is slightly less understandable than being retarded.

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The extremely virulent coronavirus which is sweeping through China's Hubei province like wildfire will eventually gain a foothold in the United States - becoming a 'community virus' this year or next, according to CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield.

"We don't know a lot about this virus," Redfield told CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta. "This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," said Redfield.

As of Thursday, 15 cases have been confirmed in seven states; eight in California, two in Illinois and one in Arizona, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin and Texas, according to CNN.

Community virus
Redfield says that while more research is needed, the CDC is focused on containment strategies to isolate and slow the progression of the novel coronavirus, buying time to develop a vaccine and antiviral drugs.

"The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year," said Redfield. "We don't have any evidence that this coronavirus is really embedded in the community at this time, but with that said, we want to intensify our surveillance so that we're basing those conclusions based on data."

Controversial travel restrictions
While the World Health Organization has argued that travel restrictions on foreign nationals could backfire (on several industries?), the Trump administration has enacted travel restrictions which block foreign nationals who have visited China in the last 14 days from entering the United States. Anyone who has been to Hubei province within two weeks of their return will be subject to a mandatory 14-day quarantine.

WHO Director-General Tedros Ahanom Ghebreyesus opposed travel restrictions last week, saying "We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit."

So - According to Tedros, travel restrictions might lead to panic and racism.
The CDC's Redfield couldn't disagree more.

"Frankly, some people criticized when we decided that we wanted to temporarily suspend travel into the United States from individuals who were not Americans or permanent residents who had been in the hot zone in the last 14 days. Some people didn't think that that was what they would do," Redfield told Gupta on Thursday.

"Well, we felt very strongly that our obligation was to do all we can to protect the American public," he added. "I would rather be criticized for over-protecting America than under-protecting America at this stage."

Gupta then asked a very CNN question; "Obviously, Dr. Redfield, the virus doesn't discriminate based on race. Why do we?"

Redfield, who didn't take the bait, replied: "The issue here was first a strong commitment to take care of the Americans that are going to come back, whether they happen to potentially have this virus or not -- and you saw that with the over 800 individuals that the State Department has repatriated and we've assisted in that."

Asymptomatic transmission is highly concerning
One of the more concerning aspects of the hyper-virulent coronavirus is that a person can transmit it to others while showing no symptoms.

"There's been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China. What we don't know though is how much of the asymptomatic cases are driving transmission," said Redfield.

"What I've learned in the last two weeks is that the spectrum of this illness is much broader than was originally presented. There's much more asymptomatic illness," he added. "A number of the confirmed cases that we confirmed actually just presented with a little sore throat."

Meanwhile, CNN notes that while the outbreak has been affecting China since at least December, the CDC has not been invited into the country to help despite offering assistance six weeks ago.

"There's a lot of information we don't know -- that's why I offered to provide assistance, direct assistance, and send our CDC folks over there back on January 6 to really help them gather that information and also to help us see the information first hand that we need to help make the right public health recommendations for our nation," said Redfield.
"That letter has not been responded to yet by the official Chinese government," he added. "We do believe that we're the best in the world in this space and we're ready to help and assist them, but they're an independent nation that has to make that decision that they're going to invite us in."

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• No, Mr.Redford. Right now we are in the midst of a completely clueless, which-way-is-my-***? mode.
• We're ready. Sure you are as thousands descend on every hospital and no drugs are available. You go to a camp somewhere to die.
•  We know quarantine requires strict segregation requirements. So we can assume aggressive means they're putting people in quarantine, right? A quarantine like the one the cruise ship in Yokohama bay--sharing the same air ducts?
•  "According to Tedros, travel restrictions might lead to panic and racism."We live in a stupid, stupid world. But enough about that.
•  I'm no medical genius, but why in the world you would fly infected people into the country is beyond me.  
•  Quarantine is a term used to describe someone over whom the government has adopted total control.  No freedom of  movement, doctors probing and prodding at will, all of your medical records examined by any official or doctor who thinks they want to know. A better way would be to quickly educate everyone on the means of transmission,  pass out protective gear,  and let this thing run its course.  Quarantine sounds good until you're the one stuck on the cruise ship adrift in the ocean,  or prevented from leaving your home to get groceries. Think the bill collectors or IRS will understand when you tell them you can't pay because you were in quarantine? Are the electric, water, and internet utilities going to give you a free ride for the duration?
•  “The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
  ... the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus."
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf
  

"Right now we're in an aggressive containment mode," said Redfield.
We know quarantine requires strict segregation requirements. So we can assume aggressive means they're putting people in quarantine, right? A quarantine like the one the cruise ship in Yokohama bay--sharing the same air ducts?
Based on the explosive rate of contagion on the ship, new quarantine facilities will need to set up individual containment cells with independent HEPA filtered air ducts.
Aggressive containment would require 24 days--the new length of incubation--as a minimum length of stay. CDC testing kits are insufficient in quantity and may not detect the virus. And if you get a positive, what do you do then? Send the infected to some big room lined with cots to mingle with the uninfected like in China? Then they call it quarantine.
Real quarantine involves setting up gates and impediments to movement. It requires massive manpower and supplies. The federal government has limited resources devoted to containment. Aggressive would mean locking the sick down, literally welding them into their apartments as they are in China.
All schools would close, malls shutter, and interstates be blocked off. Trucking would stop and food production cease as factories close. Who has the food and money to survive? Will drones ferry supplies or simply cajole unmasked passersby to mask up--complete with that epic Chinese opera music thing playing in the background?
The failure to contain the disease will be Trump's Katrina. Real aggressive quarantines won't be forthcoming, just look at the impacts on the supply chain already.
Pharmaceuticals will be forced to find alternate sources of ingredients. 80% are Chinese made and sourced; their ships have already U-turned back to China mid-Pacific. Beware gray or adulterated synthetics. Anti-depressants will be less available as the production of life-saving medicines will be prioritized, then the antivirals like the Gilead one--which will go to first responders only--then back to life-saving in advance of going 100% of production capacity on the vaccine by November. If we're aggressive.

Wu said overall revenue growth for 1Q would be negative as the economic shock from the virus has already shut down two-thirds of the Chinese economy.

Alibaba Group's CEO Daniel Zhang warned Thursday that the Covid-19 outbreak in China is developing into a "black swan event" that could have severe consequences for China and the global economy.
Zhang told analysts during a conference call that the company's fiscal third-quarter results beat expectations but warned of near-term impacts related to the deadly virus outbreak. 
He said Alibaba's revenue jumped 38% YoY for the quarter and promoted "robust growth" due to a record Single's Day.
Alibaba Group's CFO Maggie Wu said it's "too early to quantify the impact" Covid-19 will have on its business and other operating segments across Asia. 

Wu said the virus shuttered major manufacturing hubs across the country and led to hundreds of millions of people in quarantine. 
She said demand for goods and services has declined, and the delay of the workforce getting back to work could further hinder economic growth. 
Wu suggested that Alibaba is "not immune to this imbalance of supply and demand," otherwise known as a "shock," but says the company sees an opportunity in the virus crisis (a great way to spin it). 
She emphasized the outbreak is a "one-off occurrence" and by "helping customers through difficult times" that enables the company to drive long-term growth. But she provided no timetable of when the company thinks the confirmed cases and deaths will peak.
However, there's only so much the company can spin by pushing investors away from looking at short term impacts by giving them optimistic views about the distant future. 
Wu said overall revenue growth for 1Q would be negative as the economic shock from the virus has already shut down two-thirds of the Chinese economy. 
The shock Alibaba is warning about was also outlined last month by former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach, in which he said the global economy could already be in a period of vulnerability, where an exogenous shock, such as the Covid-19, could be the trigger for the next worldwide recession.

"With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets' increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects," Roach said.

The "black swan" warning was also repeated by Freeport-McMoRan CEO Richard Adkerson several weeks ago after he said the outbreak of the virus in China is a "real black swan event" for the global economy. 

And why are corporations and a former top investment manager warning about "black swan" events in China and across the world?
Well, it's because as China's economy screeches to a halt, so will the world. This comes at a time when central bank ammo to thwart below-trend growth has been exhausted. 
And what's next for Alibaba's stock, well, mounting evidence shows it could be topping...