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Thursday, February 13, 2020
China Has Ground To A Halt: "On The Ground" Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
Considering China and the word ethics are never found in the same sentence together, it's no surprise that this weapon has stopped 1.6 billion dead in their tracks. The coal numbers alone reveal the truth of the matter. To run their power grid, China has enormous coal reserves and uses them for power. The fact that coal usage is flatlined, like on a holiday, says all we need to know that
factories and offices are closed
schools, closed
trains, etc, stopped
The global economy is about to take the nosedive of the 21st century. And turning everything back on and ordering everyone back to work and unwinding their quarantines, will only gurantee that millions are going to die horribly. Numbers cannot even fathom. For that is what they will do, when the banks start failing, and many already are. Finish. DB ------------------------------
Morgan Stanley suggested that real time measurements of Chinese
pollution levels would provide a "quick and dirty" (no pun intended) way
of observing if any of China's major metropolises had returned back to
normal. What it found was that among some of the top Chinese cities
including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chengdu, a clear pattern was evident –
air pollution was only 20-50% of the historical average. As Morgan Stanley concluded, "This could imply that human activities such as traffic and industrial production within/close to those cities are running 50-80% below their potential capacity." As a reminder, all this is (or technically, isn't) taking place as
President Xi Jinping on Wednesday sought to send a message that progress
had been made in bringing the coronavirus outbreak under control and,
for most parts of the country, the focus should be on getting back to
business. According to state television, Xi chaired a meeting of the
Politburo Standing Committee, China’s supreme political body, on the
latest developments on the crisis and future policy responses,
concluding that there had been “positive changes” with “positive
results”.
Xi also reiterated that all levels of local government and Communist
Party committees must strive to achieve China’s social and development
goals this year, indicating that he did not want the public health crisis to hinder progress. Most importantly, Xi urged local authorities to refrain from taking excessive measures to curb contagion, and yet clip after clip from China...
... shows that the measures being taken are far beyond merely "excessive"
when it comes to limiting the potential spread of the virus, which
probably makes sense considering the unexpected surge in infected cases
in Wuhan, which have sent the total for China just shy of 60,000. Add to this the ongoing uncertainty that Beijing is far behind the
curve in containing the virus, and one can see why most businesses are
reluctant to "get back to normal." In the latest confirmation of just that, several other indicators
have emerged showing that despite Xi's stark demands for 1.4 billion
Chinese to ignore the global pandemic which may very well have been started by one of China's own experimental labs...
“There are plenty of theories out
there because Wuhan does have a P4 lab … maybe this was man-made and
there’s a theory that this could have been part of a bioweapons program.
But that’s just a theory,” says @onlyyoontv on the #coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/1svCAHi0jN
... virtually
all of China - and all those critical supply chains that keep companies
across the globe humming and stocked with critical inventory - remain
on lockdown. As confirmation, while we wait for an update from Morgan Stanley on the latest Chinese pollution data (at least until Beijing's definition of
"pollution" is also revised) here is JPMorgan showing that while
traditionally daily coal consumption - the primary commodity used to
keep China electrified - rebounds in the days following the Lunar New
Year collapse when China hibernates for one week, this year there hasn't
been even a modest uptick higher, indicating that so far there hasn't
been even a modest uptick in output. Yet electricity is just one core indicator of real-time economic
activity. Perhaps an even more critical one is human transit across the
1.4 billion person strong nation. Conveniently there is a way to track
rudimentary traffic patterns across some of China's key metro areas, and
they show that - in a confirmation of the worst-case scenario -
activity, as measured by travel, across most of China appears to have
ground to a halt. The charts below show TomTom's traffic congestion data across key
Chinese cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan as compared to the
average measurement for 2019. What they show is that virtually nobody
appears to be driving in China! Here is Beijing's congestion level over
the past 48 hours (a 7 day average is also available) compared to 2019.
The data indicates that travel is about 70% below its 2019 peak. Similarly, Shanghai is about 60% below its peak: Wuhan, of course, is even worse, with barely any congestion - or traffic - registering.
Amazingly, the industrial hub of Guanghzhou also appears to have ground to a crawl: And as mainland China grinds to a literal halt, traffic in Hong Kong is also starting to slide... ... and surprisingly, even such major hubs of commerce as Singapore are starting to see a traffic impact. By comparison, here is what Los Angeles traffic looks like over the past 48 hours vs 2019 average. While not perfect, and certainly not a comprehensive view of what is
really taking place "on the ground", the above data is a useful
real-time indicator of how the people in China perceive the threat of
the coronavirus pandemic, and one thing is abundantly clear: as the
pandemic spreads further without containment, and as the charts above
flatline, so will China's economy, which means that while Goldman's
draconian view of what happens to Q1 GDP is spot on, the expectation for
a V-shaped recovery in Q2 and onward will vaporize faster than a vial
of ultra-biohazardaous viruses in a Wuhan virology lab.
source zerohedge FURTHER INFORMATION
Latest news Focuses on Shanghai 1. Shanghai building another "Fire God" quarantine holding cell used
to burn bodies, but it's called a "hospital". The government is
treating the outbreak as under wartime conditions. You can imagine the
horror of people who go there assuming they will get help. 2. Wuhan is "many" hiring outside workers to collect and burn dead
bodies. recently the military sent 800 army medical staff and the
Guangzhou sent 300 college med students but it's not enough, to wuhan.
Still they hire more. You can get 2000 RMB for each collected but
there are many volunteers forced into it . Wuhan can burn 2000 each day
in the incinerators,. The rest of them are burned on the street. 3. One factory in China was forcibly converted from making face masks
to making body bags. How ironic. The orders were in the millions! 4.tge r0 infection rate is 6.7. impossible to contain it. 1 will infect 6.7 -------------
People
are dropping dead in the street from multiple organ failure, being
incinerated, and locked in hospital prisons because of a bio-warfare
virus accidentally released by a government lab , but "Xi also
reiterated that all levels of local government and Communist Party
committees must strive to achieve China’s social and development goals
this year, indicating that he did not want the public health crisis to
hinder progress." This is extremely brutal, even for a communist dictatorship.
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This is extremely brutal, even for a communist dictatorship.
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US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/13/us-military-prepping-for-coronavirus-pandemic/