An unprecedented collapse in gasoline demand. As the firm's energy
analyst Damien Courvalin said on February 8, when discussing the 6% fall
in US gasoline demand, such a plunge "would require a US recession" and
add that "implied demand data points to US gasoline demand in January
declining 460 kb/d or 5.2% year-on-year. In the absence of a base
effect, such a decline has only occurred in four periods since 1960
during which time PCE contracted."
Now, 6 months later, the situation is very much different: with the US now inside peak summer driving season, the cyclical drivers behind gasoline supply and demand are vastly different, and yet something has remained the same: gasoline demand in the US simply refuses to rebound, surprising analysts by how weak it is. So weak, in fact, that Bank of America has released a note which, like Goldman half a year ago, reveals confusion about why - if the economy is indeed strong - demand hasn't kept up and has prompted BofA's energy analyst Francisco Blanch to ask "where is the driving season?" and, more specifically, "is this year's driving season over before it began?"
If you're not building and repairing infrastructure you're not using diesel fuel for heavy equipment, the bosses aren't driving brand new company trucks (gasoline), the workers aren't traveling to the construction site, carpenters aren't driving nails into lumber, the coffee truck isn't selling anyone sandwiches, the workers aren't going to the pub for a beer after work on Friday, the kids aren't getting a new skateboard, welders aren't welding (steel), iron workers aren't raising re-bar, concrete isn't being poured, rocks aren't being crushed, construction boots aren't being sold. You get the picture.
One more 'CANARY IN THE COAL MINE' indicator that screams DEPRESSION!!! Government figures are nothing but FAKE NEWS based on FAKE DATA performed with FAKE ANALYSIS. We call this the "OBAMA ECONOMICS" program. Just ask Illinois how it is working out.
I believe this is getting very real right before our very eyes. Below is latest economic information from a REAL PERSON using REAL ANALYSIS TOOLS and GOOD DATA.
===== WWW.SHADOWSTATS.COM =====
No. 898: June Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3
July 7th, 2017
• June Payroll Gain Was on Top of Upside Revisions
• Nonetheless, Unadjusted Annual Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession
• Headline Unemployment Remained Well Short of Common Experience
• June 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, U.6 Rose to 8.6% from 8.4% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.1% from 22.0%
• Watch Out for Reporting Surprises in Week Ahead
• June Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Declined to 3.1% from 3.5% in May.
=====
No. 897: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Freight Index, Private Jobs Surveying
July 6th, 2017
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007
• June Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, Albeit at a Narrowed Pace Still Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• In Ongoing, Low-Level Stagnation, May Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 12.1% (-12.1%)
• Construction Spending Benchmark Revisions Confirmed Likely Downside-Benchmark Revisions Pending for the GDP
• Recent Patterns of Real Annual Growth in Construction Spending Revised from Up-trending to Sharply Down-trending, Consistent with a Recession
• Real Construction Spending Remained 20.7% (-20.7%) Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation
When the cost of gasoline and diesel near parity, which they have, we are in a recession. EVERY TIME. We are at that point now. We never recovered from 2008. We won't financially survive this one. 10 years was just too much, and age is taking its toll. 0% on savings ate the principal and I bonds.
Since you have 102 millions people in labor force not working those still wondering about the numbers can keep doing what there are doing = nothing.
8 years of Obama and his fanatic socialist and Marxists (Piglosi, Reid, Jarrett, Lowrenta, etc) has consequences.
Now, 6 months later, the situation is very much different: with the US now inside peak summer driving season, the cyclical drivers behind gasoline supply and demand are vastly different, and yet something has remained the same: gasoline demand in the US simply refuses to rebound, surprising analysts by how weak it is. So weak, in fact, that Bank of America has released a note which, like Goldman half a year ago, reveals confusion about why - if the economy is indeed strong - demand hasn't kept up and has prompted BofA's energy analyst Francisco Blanch to ask "where is the driving season?" and, more specifically, "is this year's driving season over before it began?"
If you're not building and repairing infrastructure you're not using diesel fuel for heavy equipment, the bosses aren't driving brand new company trucks (gasoline), the workers aren't traveling to the construction site, carpenters aren't driving nails into lumber, the coffee truck isn't selling anyone sandwiches, the workers aren't going to the pub for a beer after work on Friday, the kids aren't getting a new skateboard, welders aren't welding (steel), iron workers aren't raising re-bar, concrete isn't being poured, rocks aren't being crushed, construction boots aren't being sold. You get the picture.
One more 'CANARY IN THE COAL MINE' indicator that screams DEPRESSION!!! Government figures are nothing but FAKE NEWS based on FAKE DATA performed with FAKE ANALYSIS. We call this the "OBAMA ECONOMICS" program. Just ask Illinois how it is working out.
I believe this is getting very real right before our very eyes. Below is latest economic information from a REAL PERSON using REAL ANALYSIS TOOLS and GOOD DATA.
===== WWW.SHADOWSTATS.COM =====
No. 898: June Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3
July 7th, 2017
• June Payroll Gain Was on Top of Upside Revisions
• Nonetheless, Unadjusted Annual Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession
• Headline Unemployment Remained Well Short of Common Experience
• June 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, U.6 Rose to 8.6% from 8.4% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.1% from 22.0%
• Watch Out for Reporting Surprises in Week Ahead
• June Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Declined to 3.1% from 3.5% in May.
=====
No. 897: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Freight Index, Private Jobs Surveying
July 6th, 2017
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007
• June Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, Albeit at a Narrowed Pace Still Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• In Ongoing, Low-Level Stagnation, May Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 12.1% (-12.1%)
• Construction Spending Benchmark Revisions Confirmed Likely Downside-Benchmark Revisions Pending for the GDP
• Recent Patterns of Real Annual Growth in Construction Spending Revised from Up-trending to Sharply Down-trending, Consistent with a Recession
• Real Construction Spending Remained 20.7% (-20.7%) Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation
When the cost of gasoline and diesel near parity, which they have, we are in a recession. EVERY TIME. We are at that point now. We never recovered from 2008. We won't financially survive this one. 10 years was just too much, and age is taking its toll. 0% on savings ate the principal and I bonds.
Since you have 102 millions people in labor force not working those still wondering about the numbers can keep doing what there are doing = nothing.
8 years of Obama and his fanatic socialist and Marxists (Piglosi, Reid, Jarrett, Lowrenta, etc) has consequences.
