While
Elon Musk and Tesla seem to have successfully managed to focus investor
attention entirely on the Model 3's claimed 5,000 per week production
rate rather than the company's lack of profitability and - if numerous
forum posts are any indication- lack of reliability, it seems that even
the veracity of the production capability claim may be in question.
Reuters yesterday published a story pointing out that one of Tesla's major production bottlenecks may be the paint shop, and today Twitter user @eriz35 posted a potential multi-part explanation as to why.
If this research is correct, Tesla potentially does not have the physical capacity required to paint more than 5000 cars a week in total, including 2000 or so Models S and X.
The basis of this thesis is the compelling evidence that Tesla only installed half of the equipment from a 2014 permit application that was represented as required to achieve a total capacity of 520,000 units per year. If this is accurate (and we're still awaiting a specific refutation from the company) it means Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a lot of explaining to do relative to what he has told investors and, even more importantly, what he has told the company’s creditors.
Here's the Tweetstorm, which comes on the day the company's Chief Information Officer became the latest executive to quit:
Reuters yesterday published a story pointing out that one of Tesla's major production bottlenecks may be the paint shop, and today Twitter user @eriz35 posted a potential multi-part explanation as to why.
If this research is correct, Tesla potentially does not have the physical capacity required to paint more than 5000 cars a week in total, including 2000 or so Models S and X.
The basis of this thesis is the compelling evidence that Tesla only installed half of the equipment from a 2014 permit application that was represented as required to achieve a total capacity of 520,000 units per year. If this is accurate (and we're still awaiting a specific refutation from the company) it means Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a lot of explaining to do relative to what he has told investors and, even more importantly, what he has told the company’s creditors.
Here's the Tweetstorm, which comes on the day the company's Chief Information Officer became the latest executive to quit:
THREAD showing why Tesla can't build more than 5,000 total cars per week including S, X and 3 right now$TSLA— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
1/
Project was proposed as follows:— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
1. Gut the old North paint shop building
2. Install body paint shop 1 in the N. Paint Shop
3. Install smaller parts paint line in plastic shop
4. Demolish old NUMMI paint shop within 6 months
5. Install body paint shop 2 in the N. Paint Shop
/3
Thanks to @Tweetermeyer for the due diligence. He has provided me with some public request documents. This email chain from a public records request shows that Tesla finished up body shop #1 and stared ops in Jan 2016— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
Equipment associated with shop 2 are not listed
/5 pic.twitter.com/mhPswjZ9An
Here's a summary table from BAAQMD. Each Body Shop has a primer, basecoat and clear coat booth. As well as ovens for each booth and an oven for E-coat.— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/7 pic.twitter.com/E7EqvA9Do5
So. As of February 2016, Tesla had a paint shop rated at 5000 cars per week (at 24/7 operation). Look at the table above, assumed emissions for both lines are identical. Thus 50% of 10k/week.— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/9
"hey so when did Tesla install the second body shop doubling total production to 10k?" you may be asking yourself— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
Here's an answer: they haven't
/11
Multiple records requests performed by @Tweetermeyer through March 2018 with BAAQMD confirm that Tesla hasn't started the other half of the permitted air permitted paintshop equipment (e.g. paint booths, ovens, thermal oxidizers). Rules require notification within 15 days— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/13
Here's a Google Earth picture of the North Paint Shop in 2014, prior to construction. Note both the HVAC systems on the roof and the area circled in red— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/15 pic.twitter.com/cZ3wWUiDoV
Here's what that RTO looks like today from the ground— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/17 pic.twitter.com/R03PcLLCUC
They had the RTO installed >6 months prior to startup of the first part of the paint shop in 2016 (this is a big ass project). Remember the fiasco over injured foreign workers? https://t.co/ATpEcrH0Gb— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
/18
There's no second RTO (as required for 5k -> 10k), there are no building permits, there are no press releases and there are no filings with the BAAQMD.— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
Phase 2 of the paint shop hasn't started
/20
Yesterday's Reuter's article sealed the deal. This was the final piece confirming everything i've researched https://t.co/dC5omwEtgM— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
Every day Tesla doesn't come clean about this is fraudulent.
21/
...to be continued
Don't believe me? Look at Tesla's own master plan— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
They have plans to extend the paint shop. But have only built a portion of the structural component so far
/23 pic.twitter.com/DKA5BlZGdf
A-3008 and A-1008 are the RTOs to be placed at the North Paint Shop in order to meet 520k/yr. Each RTO controls emissions from identically sized paint shops— I.C.O. 14001 (@eriz35) June 29, 2018
They completed Phase-I in Jan 2016. There's no second RTO, therefore there is no second line
/24 pic.twitter.com/OkEHNMZHcc
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| Blew through a few billion and BK'd the company...no sweat |
